Is it true that 'new corona measures have a negative impact on the economy'? When verified from the data of 45 countries, it looks like this



The epidemic of the new coronavirus infection (COVID-19) has hit countries around the world economically. From the view that 'COVID-19 measures are a trade-off with economic measures', President Trump of the United States chose economic measures over measures against the new coronavirus, and as a result, the number of deaths due to COVID-19 in the United States is 2020. As of November 26,

there are over 180,000 people . However, 'COVID-19 measures and economic measures are not a trade-off in the first place,' claims Professor Michael Smithson of the Australian National University Graduate School of Psychology.

Data from 45 countries show containing COVID vs saving the economy is a false dichotomy
https://theconversation.com/data-from-45-countries-show-containing-covid-vs-saving-the-economy-is-a-false-dichotomy-150533

Based on data from 45 countries, the rate of change in gross domestic product per capita in the second quarter of 2020 (April to June) (vertical axis) and the number of deaths per million per capita due to COVID-19 (vertical axis) Below is a graph of the horizontal axis and logarithmic display). The color of the dots represents the region of the country.



Professor Smithson said, 'If reducing the number of deaths per million people with COVID-19 measures would lead to economic deterioration, the' slope 'of the graph should rise. Although seen, the actual slope is the opposite, with an overall

correlation coefficient of -0.412. '

The two outliers are China in the upper left corner, where the gross domestic product per capita is changing positively, and India, which is the lowest. China's early blockades and lockdowns had a limited impact on the economy. India also made a severe lockdown at an early stage, but the effect was low because the measures after that were lax. By the way, if you delete the data of China and India, the correlation will be -0.464.

The graph below summarizes the rate of change in export value (vertical axis) in the second quarter of 2020 and the number of deaths per million people per million people due to COVID-19 (horizontal axis, logarithmic display). Professor Smithson said, 'If there is a trade-off between COVID-19 measures and international trade, there should be a positive correlation coefficient between changes in exports and the number of deaths, that is, an upward-sloping correlation. , It looks like the actual data is completely uncorrelated. '



The following is a summary of the rate of change in import value (vertical axis) in the second quarter of 2020 and the number of deaths per million people per million people (horizontal axis, logarithmic display) due to COVID-19. As with the export volume, this also resulted in no correlation.



Furthermore, the rate of change in

personal consumption expenditure in the second quarter of 2020 (vertical axis) and the number of deaths per million people per million people due to COVID-19 (horizontal axis, logarithmic display) are summarized as follows. If there is a trade-off that 'If the number of deaths is reduced by COVID-19 measures, personal consumption expenditure, which is an indicator of economic activity, will be reduced', there should be a positive correlation, but the data shows a positive correlation. Was not seen. Rather, Professor Smithson points out that countries that succeeded in controlling the virus were shown to have an economic advantage over other countries.



The graph below shows the number of infected people per million people (vertical axis, logarithmic display) and the gross domestic product per capita (horizontal axis, logarithmic display). Professor Smithson said, 'If wealthy countries were good at combating COVID-19, there would be a negative correlation between the number of infected people and gross domestic product per capita. However, in reality, national countermeasures are effective. It has been suggested that the combination of sexual culture and politics has an effect. '



Professor Smithson said, 'Don't be mistaken for a zero-sum choice between lifesaving and economic saving. It's a false dichotomy. You should learn how to deal with possible future pandemics. If so, the rapid containment of a pandemic means that the economic impact of the pandemic can be reduced. '

in Science, Posted by log1i_yk